Climate change could increase tensions

Even as the Nobel Peace Prize was presented to Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on Monday, the U.N. agency which is the "father of the IPCC" released a new report explaining why "climate change mitigation policy is a policy for peace."

Resources shortage. Climate change could exacerbate tensions and trigger conflicts across the world by worsening food, water and land resource shortages and increasing the number of environmental refugees, according to "Climate Change as a Security Risk," a new report released by the U.N. Environment Programme and the German Advisory Council on Global Change at the ongoing conference of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Bali.

 

Glacial retreat

 

The Indian subcontinent is listed as a potential hotspot, along with African regions, including the troubled Darfur area, central Asia, China and the Andes and Amazon regions of South America."Glacial retreat in the Himalayas will jeopardise the water supply for millions of people, changes to the annual monsoon will affect agriculture and sea-level rises and cyclones will threaten human settlements around the populous Bay of Bengal," said the report, pointing out that these dynamics could increase the crisis potential of a region already faced with unstable governments in Bangladesh and Pakistan, as well as several cross-border conflicts."If people are displaced by sea level rise in South Asia, millions could be forced to migrate. And where will they go,?" asked UNEP executive director Achim Steiner.While recognising the devastating impact of climate change on the region, sources in the Indian delegation downplayed the linkage to conflict, pointing out that there was a world of difference between any threat to international security and the clear need for risk management.The Indian position is that there are huge risks being created, and vulnerabilities that need to be dealt with, but they would not reach the point where conflicts result.

 

Risks are huge

 

India's neighbours also feel that the risks are huge. A senior official of the Bangladesh delegation pointed out that the recent cyclonic floods that devastated his low-lying nation were proof that adaptation was critical.Entire coastal communities in the Bay of Bengal along both sides of the border are being affected by climate change impacts such as sea level rise and climate disasters, and they will be forced to migrate inland in large numbers, he said.

 

Immense pressure

 

Meanwhile, a member of Nepal's delegation said the melting of the Himalayan glaciers would put immense pressure on the Gangetic river system and expressed Kathmandu's concern that India's plans to link its rivers would aggravate problems."This is not a prediction that the world will end up in flames," clarified Mr. Steiner. "In trying to link climate change and security, we are not laying out an inevitable path, but we are trying to help countries understand the linkages and be prepared to deal with conflict situations.

DevelopmentIndia agrees that being prepared is a key to successful risk management, and feels that rapid development is essential to such preparedness.There is no doubt that in the next 20 years, we need the wherewithal to cope with these risks, said sources in the Indian delegation, pointing out that this is the reason India is arguing against any binding emission-reduction commitments that can affect its developmental goals.South Asian delegates felt that working together to achieve development throughout the region could help.

 

Declaration hailed

 

Delegates from both India and Bangladesh welcomed last week's SAARC joint declaration on climate change in New Delhi.As the U.N. Environment Programme report points out, while climate change can trigger conflicts, it can also unite global communities which recognise a common threat and work toward common goals.

 

The Hindu, December 11^th 2007