An early warning system for epidemics

A team of experts has suggested that an Early Warning and Automated Response System (EWARS) should be implemented in the State for preventing spread of diseases such as chikungunya, the vector-borne viral infection that has become a serious public health issue in the last two years. In a paper that was presented during the Kerala Science Congress in January this year, Ajit N. Babu, principal investigator and professor of medicine and director of Centre for Digital Health, Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences, along with Engelbert Niehaus, member, United Nations Action Team from Germany; S. Sabesan, deputy director, Vector Control and Research Centre (VCRC), Puducherry; and P.G. Diwakar, Director, Regional Remote Sensing Service Centre, ISRO, Bangalore, had said that the scientific data generated by the system would help the Health service in risk evaluation and allocation of resources according to the risk factors.According to the proposal, remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) data would be obtained from existing databases with the ISRO, VCRC and other governmental sources; initially for two defined areas in Ernakulam district, where adequate data from the field exists. Temperature, humidity, rainfall, vegetation (especially rubber plantations), stagnant water, inappropriate disposal of solid wastes, and urbanisation parameters are some of the variables that would be used to map the risk.

An automated risk score would then be generated that would indicate the geographic area with the greatest public health threat. The proposal says that by optimising use of existing resources, EWARS can be implemented without substantial new investments in human resources, equipment or additional infrastructure. It says that if the pilot project for chikungunya assessment is successful, the method can be adapted for use against other communicable diseases, particularly dengue as it shares the same vector. The experts point out that the use of remote sensing and GIS in developing a warning system for diseases is not a new concept. However, the demonstration projects and models for diseases like filariasis, Japanese encephalitis and malaria have not been used on a large scale to make a meaningful and sustained contribution to improvement of public health. The major challenges to the project as envisaged by the experts are identifying funding and garnering governmental support.

The Hindu, March 24,  2003