Rising temperature to hit agriculture production: study

The declining agricultural production due to climate change had been a matter of concern in those areas where a remarkable fall had occurred. While a study conducted in Kerala by M.S.Swaminathan Research Foundation recently had pointed to the damage in Kerala, leading to lower production of spices, a new study by Assocham has predicted a decrease in wheat production in several States. As part of the study conducted by M. S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, the pattern of rainfall during South West and North East monsoons was analysed at a few locations in Idukki. The total number of rainy days was found shifting over the years in all the locations. The temperature data showed that the maximum and minimum temperatures in all the three locations were changing. There was an increase of more than two degrees Celsius in maximum temperature at Pampadumpara during the last 29 years. The rate of decrease in minimum temperature was slightly lower."The declining rainfall, particularly during south west monsoon, and the increasing temperature are bound to have very serious impact on agriculture and sustainability in Idukki", according to the Foundation's report. The study conducted by Assocham and 'AgriWatch' predicts a minimum rise of 0.5 degree Celsius in winter temperatures due to accumulation of greenhouses gases in atmosphere. It will cause 0.45 tonne per hectare fall in India's wheat production in next 10 years, says the report titled 'Wheat Report 2008 : Future Tense'. The average per hectare wheat production in India is 2.6 – 2.7 tonne at current estimates. The report warns that if suitable steps for emission reductions are not carried out on a war-footing, the temperature is bound to soar which will have adverse agronomic impact especially on availability of water, cropping pattern, sowing and harvesting cycle, yield and productivity of field crops. Thus, India needs to develop in advance crop varieties tolerant to high temperature and water stress, particularly for sustaining high grain production levels. Punjab which is contributing almost 60 per cent of wheat for central pool (in government procurement) is now facing acute problem of soil salinity, excessive pesticide residues, depleted ground water supply, which if not handled on war footing ,will be disastrous for the country. Haryana too is facing similar problems in a lesser way, according to the report.

 The Hindu, 7^th July , 2008