Facing up to a bad monsoon

This year, the rains were exceptionally bad in June and the monsoon has been unable to recover from such a big setback. Now with half the rainy season over, the chances are that the monsoon will end in a drought. The country as a whole received little more than half the rain it usually gets in June. Mercifully, rains in July were only a little below average. Even so there was a cumulative deficit of about 20 per cent in countrywide rainfall by the end of that month. Based on an analysis of rainfall data for 130 years, leading atmospheric scientists have pointed out in a journal paper that when the June-July rainfall for the entire country has more than a 12 per cent shortfall, there is a 67 per cent probability of the monsoon ending in a drought. (Atmospheric scientists typically define a drought as a deficit of more than 10 per cent in the nationwide rainfall for the entire season.) In short, as July came to an end, it was clear the monsoon was in trouble. Moreover, the El Nino that is brewing in the Pacific Ocean appears to be affecting the monsoon. This warming of the equatorial waters of the central and eastern Pacific leads to enhanced cloud formation in that region, thereby drawing away the moisture-laden winds needed to sustain the Indian monsoon. In 1997, favourable conditions in the equatorial Indian Ocean were able to counter a strong El Nino and the monsoon enjoyed slightly above-average rains. This year, unfortunately, the Indian Ocean has not helped out and could instead be adding to the monsoon’s woes. August usually provides nearly 30 per cent of the monsoon rainfall. Poor rains in the opening days of this month have pushed the seasonal deficit for the country as a whole to 25 per cent. If the rains fail to pick up this month, a bad situation could become a whole lot worse. Northwestern India has already been badly hit, with the rainfall deficit now standing at 40 per cent. It is from this region that the monsoon starts its withdrawal, a process that often begins in early September and then extends gradually to the rest of the country. So the rains in August will have a huge impact on this region. A poor monsoon no longer brings with it the spectre of famine but droughts have been shown to significantly reduce foodgrain production and the GDP. There has been a sharp drop in paddy cultivation this monsoon. “In no case should we allow our citizens to go hungry,” Prime Minister Manmohan Singh proclaimed at the recent conference of State Chief Secretaries. At a time like this, with a crisis looming, it is imperative that the central and State governments set aside their differences and work in unison for the common good.The Hindu, 11th August 2009A flying frog, the world's smallest deer and the first new monkey to be found in over a century are among 350 new species discovered in the eastern Himalayas in the past decade, the WWF said Monday.But the environmental group said the vital habitats of the mountain range were facing growing pressures from unsustainable development in the region, which spans Nepal, China, India, Bhutan and Myanmar.In a report released here, it said climate change, deforestation, overgrazing by domestic livestock and illegal poaching and wildlife trading threatened one of the biologically richest areas of the planet."In the last half-century, this area of South Asia has faced a wave of pressures as a result of population growth and the increasing demand for commodities," said the report, "The Eastern Himalayas -- Where Worlds Collide.""Only 25 percent of the original habitats in the region remain intact. For the unique species of the Eastern Himalayas, this means that today 163 are considered globally threatened," it said.The WWF said 353 new species were discovered in the region between 1998 and 2008, among them a red-footed tree frog known as a "flying frog" because its large webbed feet allow it to glide when falling.Another new species was a kind of caecilian, a limbless amphibian that resembles a giant earthworm and lives underground -- a significant discovery because caecilians are among the planet's least-studied creatures.Other highlights were the world's smallest deer -- a miniature muntjac standing just 60-80 centimetres (25-30 inches) tall that was found in northern Myanmar -- and the first new monkey species to be discovered in over a century.The WWF said the new species of macaque was one of the highest-dwelling monkeys in the world, living in India's Arunachal Pradesh state at between 1,600 and 3,500 metres (5,000 and 11,500 feet) above sea level.Among the 242 new plant varieties discovered was an ultramarine blue flower found by two intrepid Chinese botanists who descended into a gorge in Tibet that is twice as deep as the Grand Canyon in places.
The New Indian Express, 11th August 2009