Climate migrations

The plausible spectre of large numbers of people migrating from coastal regions, and of entire populations abandoning small island countries due to rising sea levels makes it vitally important for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to come up with a strong adaptation strategy at its Copenhagen conference later this year. The scale of the climate migration challenge is staggering. Experts estimate that by mid-century nearly 250 million people may come under pressure to move out because of intensifying monsoon flooding, desertification, and reduced food production. The threat of mass migration is of acute concern to India because, for a start, Bangladesh, where millions of people live close to the sea, is extremely vulnerable. Another neighbour, the Maldives, fears it will almost entirely go under water with a not-impossible one-metre rise in sea level. So gloomy is the view from the beautiful, atoll nation that its recently elected government announced a move to create a sovereign fund to resettle its population of about 300,000 abroad. It wants the world to treat climate change as a human rights issue. These developments should prompt India to take climate change more seriously than it has done so far. The United Progressive Alliance government's National Action Plan on Climate Change clearly lacks a sense of demonstrable urgency. The plan has been justly criticised for adhering to the old path of economic growth involving unsustainable energy intensity, and for abandoning equity principles. The poor feel the immediate effects of an altered climate. The Prime Minister's special envoy on climate change, Shyam Saran, has indicated that the eight missions envisaged under the action plan are nearing finalisation, but it is obvious that they will remain on the back-burner until a new government assumes office in May. Numerous months have been lost in getting State governments to roll out key missions covering sustainable habitat, agriculture, green cover, water conservation, and public transport. The scientific view makes it clear that all major countries, including India, must cut emissions significantly. Leading climatologists think the safe level for global atmospheric carbon dioxide is 350 parts per million (ppm), but that level is history. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recorded 379 ppm of the gas in 2005. Conventional coal-based power plants continue to be built everywhere and they are steadily ramping up emissions. Rhetoric will not serve India under these circumstances. It must show genuine intent and tangible action.

The Hindu, 7th March 2009