Clouded on climate

From June 1 for 10 days temperatures will rise in Bonn as negotiators
from all over the world congregate to prepare for the crucial December
Copenhagen climate agreement that will replace the Kyoto Protocol. The
new agreement sets industrialised nations an additional target of a
25-40 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2020 compared
to 1990 levels. By 2050, the targeted emission cut is to be 50-80 per
cent, so as to keep the overall increase in world temperatures within
2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F). With climate negotiations reduced to a
rich-versus-poor slanging match, the US will be on watch as usual,
with the Obama administration making its first appearance at such a
meeting. Thus far the US has opposed the Kyoto Protocol caps, unlike
the European Union that plans to cut emissions by at least 20 per cent
by 2020 and is ready to go up to 30 per cent if other industrialised
nations agree. Though the US President, Mr Barack Obama's "we will get
it done" statement on climate legislation augurs well for the Bonn
negotiations, it is not clear how far domestic realities will allow
Washington to go beyond the good intentions. Further, the US would
want to see key co-GHG contributor China — the two account for more
than 40 per cent of the world's GHG emissions — increase its
commitment to emissions reduction. It would also want enforceable
targets set for other major developing countries such as India and
Brazil that were exempted till 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol. Though
the advanced developing nations will not accept absolute cuts. This
group may yet strike some common ground with the industrialised
countries, but the position of the other developing countries,
represented by G77, remains tentative as they are unable to arrive at
a consensus on major issues, hampered by their vastly divergent
interests. The negotiators will thus have to devote time to the
'Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions' (NAMA) and 'Reducing
Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation' (REDD) that have emerged
in recent times. Countries will also need to think up improvements to
existing systems, such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and
the shape and place of new ones, such as for land use and forestry or
the inclusion of new gases. No one expects all the answers in December
but most would be happy to get some, for such issues as near-term
emission cuts for industrialised and developing countries, how much
funds developed nations will allocate to help poorer countries invest
in clean technologies, and structures to ensure these resources are
deployed efficiently and effectively. The negotiators have one more
session, in Bangkok in September/October, to warm to an accord on
climate change.

The Business Line 29th May 2009