new policy paper by the International Organization for Migration,
depending on the degree of climate disturbances. Aside from the South
Pacific, low-lying areas likely to be battered first include
Bangladesh and nations in the Indian Ocean, where the leader of the
Maldives has begun seeking a safe haven for his 300,000 people.
Landlocked areas may also be affected; some experts call the Darfur
region of Sudan, where nomads battle villagers in a war over shrinking
natural resources, the first significant conflict linked to climate
change. In the coming days, the U.N. General Assembly is expected to
adopt the first resolution linking climate change to international
peace and security. The hard-fought resolution, brought by 12 Pacific
island states, says that climate change warrants greater attention
from the United Nations as a possible source of upheaval worldwide and
calls for more intense efforts to combat it. While all Pacific island
states are expected to lose land, some made up entirely of atolls,
like Tuvalu and Kiribati, face possible extinction. As it is, the
compromise resolution does not mention such specific steps, one of the
reasons it is expected to pass. Britain, which introduced climate
change as a Security Council discussion topic two years ago, supports
it along with most of Europe, while other permanent council members —
namely, the United States, China and Russia — generally backed the
measure once it no longer explicitly demanded council action.
Scientific studies distributed by the United Nations or affiliated
agencies generally paint rising seas as a threat. A 2007 report by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, detailing shifts expected
in the South Pacific, said rising seas would worsen flooding and
erosion and threaten towns as well as infrastructure. Some fresh water
will turn salty, and fishing and agriculture will wither, it said. The
small island states are not alone in considering the looming threat
already on the doorstep. A policy paper released this month by
Australia's Defence Ministry suggests possible violent outcomes in the
Pacific. While Australia should try to mitigate the humanitarian
suffering caused by global warming, if that failed and conflict
erupted, the country should use its military "as an instrument to deal
with any threats," said the paper. Australia's previous prime
minister, John Howard, was generally dismissive of the problem, saying
his country was plagued with "doomsayers." But a policy paper called
"Our Drowning Neighbours," by the now governing Labour Party, said
Australia should help meld an international coalition to address it.
Political debates have erupted there and in New Zealand over the idea
of immigration quotas for climate refugees. New Zealand established a
"Pacific Access Category" with guidelines that mirror the rules for
any emigre, opening its borders to a limited annual quota of some 400
able-bodied adults between the ages of 18 and 45 who have no criminal
records. But its position has attracted criticism for leaving out the
young and the old, who have the least ability to relocate. Australia's
policy, by contrast, is to try to mitigate the circumstances for the
victims where they are, rather than serving as their lifeboat. The
sentiment among Pacific Islanders suggests that they do not want to
abandon their homelands or be absorbed into cultures where indigenous
people already struggle for acceptance. Rakova, on the Carteret
Islands, echoes that sentiment. A year ago, her proposed relocation
effort attracted just three families out of a population of around
2,000 people. But after last season's king tides, she is scrounging
for about $1.5 million to help some 750 people relocate before the
tides come again. Jennifer Redfearn, a documentary maker, has been
filming the gradual disappearance of the Carterets for a work called
"Sun Come Up." One clan chief told her he would rather sink with the
islands than leave. It now takes only about 15 minutes to walk the
length of the largest island, with food and water supplies shrinking
all the time. "It destroys our food gardens, it uproots coconut trees,
it even washes over the sea walls that we have built," Rakova says on
the film. "Most of our culture will have to live in memory." — © 2009
The New York Times News Service
The Hindu, 30th May 2009
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