Global food supply improving, says FAO

NEW DELHI: With the second-highest global cereals crop expected this year and stocks replenished, the world food supply appeared less vulnerable to [external] shocks than it was during last year's food crisis, the Food and Agriculture Organisation said in its Food Outlook report released on Thursday. "International prices of most agricultural commodities have fallen in 2009 from their 2008 heights, an indication that many markets are slowly returning to balance," the twice-yearly report said. So far the improvement was largely in cereals – the critical sector for food security – after record production in 2008 overshot original forecasts, the report said. The bumper crop had also facilitated replenishment of global reserves to pre-crisis levels. At the same time, the report said that food prices remained high in many developing countries, and access to food for the poor also continued to be threatened by loss of employment, income and other effects of the global economic crisis. World cereal production in 2009 is forecast to reach 2, 219 million tonnes (including rice on a milled basis), about three per cent lower than last year's record high but nonetheless the second largest crop ever gathered, the FAO said. In 2008-09 it was 2, 287 million tonnes. In 2009-10, reductions were forecast for wheat and coarse grains while the global rice crop may register another marginal increase. In several major producing countries, cereal farmers had been discouraged by poor expected returns: sharply lower grain prices and relatively high input costs.In Asia, prospects for the winter wheat crop had improved in China and Pakistan. In India, where the harvest is already underway, the wheat crop was expected to be similar to the 2008 level at about 78 million tonnes. In the Near East, wheat crop was expected to recover from last year's drought especially in Iran. Similarly, in the Asian CIS, better conditions in Kazakhstan, was expected to lead to a recovery in the wheat crop there after drought last year. On the other hand sizeable increases were expected in rice output in Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, the report said. The first forecast for world cereal trade in 2009-10 was 257 million tonnes, down by nearly 4 per cent from last year. This contraction mostly concerned wheat imports, which could fall by as much as 10 million tonnes in the new season, reflecting a strong anticipated recovery in production in several major wheat-importing countries. More problematic was the oilseed products sector, with prices on world markets increasing as a consequence of production setbacks in some major producers and of expanding consumption of animal feed in China and India. Oilseeds production in 2008-09 was forecast at 405.9 million tonnes, 0.7 per cent more than the 403.1 million tonnes estimated for the year before.

 

The Hindu, 5th June, 2009